Russia Has Run Out of Workers

Record-low 2.1% unemployment, a 3.1 million-worker gap looming by 2030 and a defence hiring machine bidding against every employer. 102 data points that explain Russia's 2026 talent market.

2.1%

Unemployment, Feb 2026 — tying the all-time record low

3.1M

Projected worker shortfall by 2030

+20.7%

Minimum wage rise in 2026, to 27,093 RUB / month

93%

Of employers report a shortage of qualified applicants

A Labour Market With No Slack

Unemployment, labour force and participation

Unemployment rate, %

4.8

2021 avg
(pre-war)

2.1

Feb 2026
(record low)

2.4

2026
forecast

2.6

2027
forecast

2.7

2028
forecast

Forecasts: Bank of Russia consensus. Late 2025 average: 2.2%.

Labour force snapshot, late 2025

76.3M

Labour force

74.7M

Employed — 61.7% employment rate

63.3%

Labour force participation, Jul 2025

0.3M

Officially registered unemployed

About 70% of enterprises reported worker shortages by late 2024.

The Wage Race

Pay is rising fast — but real gains are cooling

Minimum wage

27,093
RUB / month, Jan 2026

Up 20.7% from 22,440 RUB in 2025. The 2025 rise was 16.6%.

Average offered salary

113,900
RUB / month, Jul 2025

Up from 99,700 RUB in January 2025.

Nominal wage growth

+14.4%
year-on-year, Jan–Aug 2025

Forecast: 8.0% (2026), 7.6% (2027), 7.0% (2028).

Real wage growth, %

8.2

2023

8.9*

2024

5.4

2025

2.9

2026
projected

*The source cites both 8.9% and 9.7% for 2024; 8.9% shown. Real wages are up 19% between Q3 2021 and Q3 2025.

Monthly salary, '000 RUB (2025)

Vertical lathe operatorTop blue-collar

257

IT — Moscow

230

IT — St. Petersburg

200

Turners & truck drivers180–190 range

~185

IT — national median

183

IT — regional cities

159

Avg blue-collar

136

Where pay jumped the most, % growth

Sverdlovsk manufacturing wagesFeb 2022 – Feb 2025

+78%

Automotive manufacturing offersH1 2025

+43.4%

Oil & gas extraction offersH1 2025

+43.3%

Nominal wages, nationwideJan–Aug 2025

+14.4%

The takeaway: Industrial and energy sectors posted the steepest pay jumps, while average wages in financial and insurance services slipped 3% year-on-year at the start of 2025.

Vacancies & Candidate Competition

Fewer openings, more CVs — but not in every field

Resumes per vacancy

4.8

Start
2025

5.5

Mid-2025
hh.ru ideal

6.0

2025
average

8.0

End
2025

18+

IT market
late 2025

Vacancy change, early 2025 (YoY)

-31%

Consulting

-26%

Logistics

-25%

All vacancieshh.ru data

-15%

Science, education, manufacturing and services still grew. 2.3 million job vacancies stood open at the start of 2025.

The Defence Hiring Machine

Military and defence-industry recruitment reshapes the market

Military contracts signed

~450K

2024

422,704

2025 (-6%)

About 30,000 contracts a month in 2025, with 40,000+ in March 2025 alone.

Q1 2026

-20%

Military recruitment versus Q1 2025.

1,000–1,200

Recruits per day, Q1 2025

800–1,000

Recruits per day, Q1 2026

Regions funded about 70,500 recruits in Q1 2026. Moscow sent 24,469 people in 2025, about 25% fewer than in 2024.

Avg regional sign-on bonus

1.47M
RUB, record high Mar 2026

Regional bonus spend

230B
RUB (~$2.9B), H1 2025

Federal bonus spend

80B
RUB (~$1B), H1 2025

Defence industry workforce

3.8M

Employed in the defence industrial complex

400K

Workforce gap, up to 20% of employees

520K

Hired in the 18 months to mid-2024

+20–60%

Salary rise at military plants to early 2024

The cost of competing

Defence spend% of GDP, 2025

5.1%

Recruitment cost% of GDP

0.5%

Regional budgetson recruitment, 2025

3–4%

Mari El budgeton sign-on bonuses

10%

Over 60% of regions offered bonuses above 1 million RUB by early 2025.

Structural Shocks to the Workforce

Who left the civilian labour market

650K

Working-age men left the civilian workforce for the front

70K

IT specialists emigrated since 2022

4.5M

Foreign workers entered Russia for work in 2023, up 30%

720K

Fewer people aged 25–29 between Dec 2021 and Dec 2022

200K

Agricultural workers (3.3% of the sector) left in 2023

2.5–5M

Potential workforce gap in the coming years

The takeaway: About 2.7% of the workforce left in total — 1% in the war's first year and another 1.7% over the next three. Defence design bureaus now average over 70 years old.

Employer & Candidate Pulse

How hiring behaviour is shifting

93%

Employers reporting a shortage of qualified applicantshh.ru & Euler Research, 2025

60%

Employers preferring candidates who use AI tools2025

88%

Candidates prioritising vacancies that list salary2025, up 7%

70%

Enterprises reporting worker shortagesBy late 2024

40%

Employers that raised wagesH1 2025

50%

Employers naming training & mentoring as the main fixLate 2025, hh.ru survey

The Economic Backdrop

Cooling inflation, easing rates, pressured budgets

Then → now

Inflation (2024 → 2025)

9.5%

→

5.6%

Key rate (cut during 2025)

21%

→

16%

Living comfortably (2022 → 2025)

22%

→

39%

Labour pay, % of GDP (Q1 '24 → Q1 '25)

46.8%

→

50.2%

Profit share (Q1 2025)

44.5%

→

41.9%

Central Bank inflation target: 4%.

Budget pressure, 2025

-6.4%

Budget revenues

-30%

Oil revenues

~4%

Deficit as % of GDP

0.8%

Planned deficit

In Q1 2026, regions spent 3–4% of their budgets on military recruitment, with some as high as 10%.